This tale isn’t actually about the above exactly but I wanted to clarify the role I was playing. This story is actual about disease. In light of the new Corona virus from China, and the trepidation of a coming plague that will wipe out humanity, I thought this would be interesting.
I’ll leave out the name of this college though it will probably be a bit too easy to determine if you do any digging. The job was teaching in the Marshall Islands and, as I mentioned, problems occurred. After accepting the job our agreement was changed, in this case very last minute. So I never traveled to the Marshall Islands—though I’d still like to visit to see some of these islands before they are swallowed by increasing sea levels.
So, I did not go to the Marshall Islands, then this happened:
At the end of summer 2019 large storm waves washed over the island. As sea level rises, this will become an ever increasing problem. The islands (there are lots, with 29 that house people) have a high point average of about 2 meters (6 ½ feet) above sea level. Read that again. That’s the average high point not the average height of the islands. The waves contributed to an outbreak of disease. Diseases, included flu, typhoid, and dengue. If we jump forward several months we can see some of the intensity via news headlines.
News Headline: 04-October-2019:
This is the Worst Dengue Year in Nearly a Decade. It May Get Worse from Here.
Huge waves and disease turn Marshall Islands into ‘a war zone,’ health official say.
News Headline: 20-November-2019:
Marshall Islands: Dengue outbreak now 1,165 cases
News Headline: 29-December 2019:
Dengue Fever Cases total more than 1700
News Headline: 21-January-2020:
'Worse than ever': Ongoing dengue epidemic hammers Majuro (Capital of Marshall Islands).
On 23-January 2020: Hospital confirmed cases now 2200. But It’s suspected that up to 8000 have the disease. This is not a news headline but instead a “Situation Report” posted online by the EpiNet Outbreak Team.
News Heading: 02-Feb-2020:
Marshalls gets US medical team support with dengue treatment
“With Majuro hospital wards overflowing with dengue fever patients, a US volunteer medical team has arrived to bolster the hospital's treatment programme.” (Not from a U.S. paper, note British spelling)
Early February: Now 2300 confirmed cases, and an average of 23 new cases a day now arriving at hospital.
News Headline: 10-february-2020:
Dengue fever outbreak claims two more lives in the Marshall Islands
(though I should point out, miserable as it would be to get this disease, there were not/are not a huge number of deaths associated with it.)
I made of graph of confirmed cases. It does look like the number of new cases is dropping. A curve fit of this graphed data (statistics! second graph) indicates that confirmed hospital cases will top out (asymptote—flat line at top) at about 3300 cases in about 2 more months. But, the Marshall Islands contains 1200 islands (29 or so inhabited) and covers a huge area, over 470,000 square kilometers, (180,000 mi2). It is possible, and even likely, that there are a number of unconfirmed cases. This could cause the confirmed cases to explode, if they travel in to one of the few hospitals/clinics, or for the disease to persist for longer than expected.
I put the times just as increases numbers on the X-axis.
The 2019 Dengue outbreak began on the island of Ebeye, peaking in August on that island. A large number of cases were not seen in Majuro (capital city and also where nearly all the people live) until September. The number of new cases in Majuro might have peaked in January, with 156 new weekly cases.
Marshall Islands Info:
The Marshall Islands, or more officially, The Republic of the Marshall Islands, is a mass of islands and atolls in the Pacific Ocean. Its Recent population census shows the islands to have a population of about 52,000. This number seems to be decreasing rapidly as people leave the islands. Most people live in the capital Majuro, which is located on one of the thicker islands of the large Majuro atoll.
If you peruse WWII history, then you know about the Pacific Islands and how devastating the taking of some of the islands was for U.S. forces. Majuro was one of the islands abandoned by the Japanese during this time—they fortified other islands with these troops.
Dengue Information:
Dengue, or dengue fever, is a set of viruses transmitted by mosquitoes. It can be fatal, but often, like the flu, is a miserable non-fatal experience. It is sometimes called breakbone fever due to the muscle and joint pain that occur. Dengue is common in some tropical areas around the world. Another mass outbreak of it occurred in the Marshal Islands in 2011. That outbreak did not infect as many people as the current outbreak. Like the flu, fatalities from dengue typically occur in the young and old. Dengue infection can cause bleeding and develop into dengue hemorragic fever or dengue shock syndrome, this is more common in children and fatality levels are up to 30% in those cases.
The symptoms of dengue are fever, nausea, vomiting, general pain, a measles-like rash. Bleeding may occur, as capillaries break. If severe bleeding occurs the organs can be in trouble and that’s when shock and hemorragic fever can result.
To combat dengue, mosquitoes must be controlled. After the earlier outbreak, in 2011, a survey for mosquitoes was done. Most juvenile mosquitoes were found in water storage containers, and discarded tires. Next down the list were refuse items and buckets/washtubs and garbage cans. I’m a bit amazed at this. That on a small island it isn’t possible to police the area and greatly reduced mosquitoes. At least get rid of the rubbish and monitor the water storage areas—that’s drinking water. Poor drinking water conditions are the reason typhoid is also a problem on the islands. My perspective is elite, I know, and the problems are out of my realm. Maybe when I get myself to the Islands, I will understand better. Donation are being accepted for the pricey $$$ plane ticket. Inquire within.
Sources and Further Readings:
PPHSN - ROSSP, Pacific Public Health Surveillance Network
Epinet: https://www.pphsn.net/Services/EpiNet/intro.htm
Side note, good luck digging up information from this site. It sucks beans.
Sharp TM, Mackay AJ, Santiago GA, Hunsperger E, Nilles EJ, et al. 2014. Characteristics of a Dengue Outbreak in a Remote Pacific Island Chain – Republic of the Marshall Islands, 2011–2012. PLoS ONE 9(9): e108445.